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What Harvard Predicts Must Come True, Right?

   Reading the Harvard Business Review is a bit like reading your own obituary from several decades in the future.  What I mean by that is that the HBR is extremely depressing, yet satisfying, all at the same time.  America, it seems to suggest, is destined to be super power over the next thirty years, yet it will also be at the mercy of China and its bankers for quite some time.  The current recession will be a memory at some point, but when that point comes is anybody's guess.  The dollar will continue to be the reserve currency of choice, but it will be weakened and diluted in the process of U.S. government spending.  Russia and China and Iran will continue to badger and goad our military through their actions, but we will be steadfast in our defense against all outside terrorist threats.  In short, the United States will be just fine, yet wholly subservient to a new type of international power structure.  Make sense?  Didn't think so.
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Will Change Come to MoCo?

   I live (right now) in Montgomery County, Maryland.  An " All-American" community, if one is to believe the signs the county has placed near its borders and by its busiest streets.  But upon further inspection, the county would be more honest with a sign that read: Montgomery County, An "All-Government" community.  
   Why?  Because Democrats have run the county for over two decades, and to them and their cronies, it is county government that makes the area great.  County government is the creator of jobs, the creator of parks, and oh yeah, the producer of "things".  Well, I guess technically they are the seller of liquor, but that is because the County charter has been rigged to impose a monopoly over all liquor sales in the county (the better the fatten tax revenues).  And, I guess they are also the seller of "services", and "permits", like the wonderfully expensive parking permit I purchase every month to park at the local metro station.  Add these revenues to the massive increases year-over-year to property tax rates, and it is easy to see why MoCo government has gotten fatter then an early-1990s Oprah.
   Cost of living issues in MoCo aside, how can this be changed?  How can Republicans or at this point, the Greens, make a case that the Democratic stranglehold on the county is not good and not pointing to better times ahead?  It won't be easy, but 2009 and 2010 seem like times ripe for change.  In a series of blogs, I will write about the potential for change in MoCo.  Here's one glimmer of hope for 2009: Robin Ficker is back!
   
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A Coward Talks, and a Leader Acts Mr. Holder

   "When it comes to the issue of race... ...America has always been... ...and I think still is... ...a nation of cowards."  So sayeth the great race redeemer, Mr. Eric Holder.  The problem is, according to Mr. Holder, Americans are cowardly and timid when the topic of race comes up.  We haven't had a direct conversation about race with people of other races, and thus we are all hidden racists in some form or another.  We are all quick to jump to conclusions and to shut out potential friendships because we don't care to understand the complexities of someone walking in another shade of skin color. 
   But Mr. Holder misses the point:  Americans don't talk, they act.  There are more minorities in local, state, and federal government then ever before in this nation's history.  There are more interracial couples in this country then ever before in history.  There are so many mixed couples, and children of mixed couples, that demographers foresee a fast-approaching time (maybe 20-30 years out) where Americans will form a race all to their own: American.  This is because the defining characteristics of race: skin color, eye color, hair type, will be so muddled in our blessed mixed children that there can be no word to define someone who is 1/8th black, 3/4 white and 1/8th japanese.  Perhaps there will always be some form of white supremist groups out there, but then, there will also always be the Nation of Islam, which is a pretty intolerant group in its own right. 
   And just because these groups lead a a highly marginalized existence in America does not mean that the rest of us lead a "cowardly" life when it comes to race, Mr. Holder.  It just means that this is a freedom-loving nation, and so we reluctantly allow groups like the aforementioned to survive because it is their misguided right to do so under the Constitution.  Life and liberty are our founding principals (and so to is the pursuit of happiness, although now I believe it has been amended to just happiness) after all. 
   And it is Mr. Holder's right to speak his mind, as well.  But I just wonder about where Mr. Holder lives in the DMV (District, Maryland and Virginia).  Does he live in upper PG county?  In that case, is he a coward because he won't move to a more "white" neighborhood?  Does he live in Georgetown?  Perhaps then he is anti-black, his own race, because you do not see too many minorities living over there.  Does he live in Langley Park or south Arlington?  If not, why?  Is it because he is secretly against living in a hispanic-dominated neighborhood?  These are absurd questions, to be sure, but then again, absurdity seems to follow absurd propositions. 
 
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Moral Hazard Times Infinity

   There are so many things wrong with the stimulus, it is hard to know where to begin.  But to me, nothing in this ill-begotten bill screams moral hazard more then the money federal lawmakers are setting aside for states and cities.  At present, it appears that some of this aid was stripped out of the senate version passed today by an overwhelming (cough cough) majority, but just a few hours later Pelosi announced that she wants to put it back in.  One can only hope that her insistence leads to more wrangling and perhaps an end to this foolish enterprise all together.
   Consider: states all across this great union are suffering, but which of them are suffering the most?  Are you hearing about Florida's 40-billion dollar deficit? Are you hearing that Texas is considering taxing itunes downloads and movie tickets?  No, of course not, because those states actually have some idea of how to plan ahead, and they are mixed, in their legislative bodies, between the two parties.  It's the dark blue states like New York, California, and Maryland that need this money.  They need this money because their state legislators are spend-crazy, and their governor's are spineless.  They need this money to "create and preserve jobs".  Baloney. With the money they get from the Feds, these states will simply plug the holes in their budgets and hope that business can continue as usual.  They will use the money to preserve failing, bloated bureacracies, and they will continue to fund pet projects that otherwise will need to be scaled back or scrapped. 
   These Democratic governors and state legislators got into this fiscal mess by not looking ahead, and so therefore the solution is to allow them to continue not looking ahead.  If you think that statement is bit illogical, well, perhaps you are too smart to ever belong to the United States Congress.
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Trip Log 2: Jamaica in 2009

   On my trip to Jamaica last week, I was struck by two things: how beautiful and passionate the people of the island are, and how dismal so many of their living conditions seem.  On the bus ride west to the town of Negril, I noted countless shacks and wood cabins.  These were structures that would stand no chance against a hurricane or tropical storm.  There did not appear to be any running water or waste disposal in any of the small square buildings, and they were also devoid of so many of the things that Americans view as necessities.  I saw electric power lines only in the towns, not leading into many of the communities I passed.  I wondered if some Jamaicans had ever seen or heard of a personal computer.
   Yet for all this, the people there are pretty upbeat.  There was a reggae song I heard many times that had a chorus which went something like, "Look pon the gully siiiiiide, do you see anyting fe smile about?".  Well the quick answer to this question would be "no".  The real opportunities of a global economy never entered Jamaica (or only showed themselves to a select few), and now the global economy is in shambles.  This is bad news for a country heavily reliant on tourism and American dollars to keep people employed.  During my stay, I noted the mostly half-empty beaches and restaurants, despite it being Super Bowl weekend and Bob Marley's birthday week. 
   Yet, despite the economic waves that roil across the Atlantic, Jamaicans seemed upbeat and hopeful.  They were (mostly) friendly to me, and I never once felt threatened (although that could have been because I was traveling with an NFL defensive lineman).  They seemed to acknowledge the crisis at hand in their own economy and the world's, but they also seemed a people accustomed to crisis and the inevitable recovery that follows.  I can only hope they won't have to wait too long this time around.
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Trip Log 1: Jamaica in 2009

   As the plane touched down and I wearily strode into the bright sunlight of the early-afternoon, I was greeted by a coupon for a free drink at Margaritaville, bright smiling faces, and various porters looking for work.  Ahhhh, I had entered Jamaica.
   But as my stay lengthened, I came to some disturbing observances about the country I have read and watched so much about.  I observed extreme poverty and disgusting income inequality.  I saw the effects of stagflation.  I saw an economy that relies almost exclusively on tourism and agriculture to stay afloat.  I saw a society that has been coarsened and weakened by a lack of eductational opportunities.  I also saw a culture that was full of potential, yet stuck in so many ways to decades long passed.
   What did it all mean?  I don't know now, but I will post my favorite stories and memories from this trip, and perhaps that will lead to some sort of answer.
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One Party Can Never Last, Can It?

   The old adage has rung true time and time again: absolute power corrupts absolutely.  We see it everywhere: in the heavily Republican Congress of 2003-2004, in Illinois state politics, in Albany, New York.  But as always, there are exceptions to the rule.  Case in point: the state of Maryland.
 
   I am 22 years old, and throughout my life there has only been one party making laws, spending money, and setting social policy: Democrats.  Sure there was governor Erlich in 2002, but that was mainly the by-product of a terrible Democratic candidate that year.  As soon as the next gubernatorial race rolled around, it was straight back to Democrats.  
 
   Now, I don't know when this will end, or if it ever will.  There are murmerings now of rebellion in the ranks today, as I write this.  People hate the tax increase of 2007.  They also want more spending, however.  People hate that crime continues to worsen in places like Montgomery and Prince George's counties.  People despise the myriad fees and the expensive toll to get across the Bay Bridge.  They hate the regulations on business but, in the same breath, ask for more environmental safeguards.  In short, the people of Maryland are hard to please, but even harder to figure out.
 
   With so many problems, what will voters do about it?  My best guess now is that they will continue to elect huge Democratic majorities in the state house and that they will most likely re-elect Governor O'Malley.  It is, to borrow a Hannity word, "stunning".  But part of the problem here is that Republicans remain small, timid, and unwilling or unable to talk about things that Marylanders care about.  I have already dispensed some advice in a previous posting, but here goes some more: be different, but not necessarily Republican.
 
   More on this tomorrow.
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How the Maryland GOP can win in 2010

   A week ago I was perusing the left-of-center Washington Post when I came across a startling statistic in the Metro section.  According to an article on how the terms of Maryland governor Martin O'Malley and Virginia governor Tim Kaine have been affected by the sharp economic downturn, O'Malley still enjoyed a 52% approval rating, versus 37% who disapproved of the job he has been doing.  Heading into the 2010 election cycle, the article suggested, O'Malley still had a fairly good shot at re-election in deep blue Maryland.
   At first I was livid.  How could a majority, albeit marginal majority, of Marylanders still approve of a governor who raised taxes to the tune of $1.8 billion dollars while the economy weakened and people saw a gallon of gas hit $4?  How could they approve of O'Malley when he had done nothing of serious consequence through two-plus years as governor?
   But then I stepped back: only 52% of Marylanders approved of O'Malley in the People's Republic of Maryland? That is cause for celebration.  Usually it would be in the high 70s if the economy was decent and incomes were rising.  But neither of conditions have been met, so Republicans have a chance, an opening, at picking off the governor's office in Maryland provided that they choose the right person and run on the right platform.  The following are some musings I have about the issues and arguments they can make to at least put up a fight against O'Folly and the Democratic Party of Maryland in 2010.

1.
  Start referring to him as O'Folly.  It's funny and it really speaks to how foolish and utterly incompetent his administration has been in these trying economic times.
 
2.  Ignore point number one, and instead hit hard on the tax issue.  Remind people that while their incomes were faltering and the housing market was crashing, O'Malley and his democratic chums in the State House raised taxes and were giddy doing so. 
 
3.  Court the anti-slot crowd.  This doesn't mean run on the position that slots are evil and that they must be stopped at all costs, because those days are gone thanks to the newly passed slots referendum.  Instead remind folks, many of whom are Democrats, that it was this governor who went back on his prior word and backed slots because he had no money in the state coffers (even after raising taxes) and he desperately wants to fund big money programs he promised in 2006.  Remind voters that gambling and a higher sales tax hits lower-income residents harder then the Potomac and Bethesda-area crews, and that these moves aren't very uh, progressive.
 
4.  Use county issues to further pit Democrats against Democrats.  For instance, in my county,  Montgomery, there has long been public anger over the building of the "ICC", a long toll road supposed to connect Montgomery and Prince George's counties and alleviate the traffic build-up on the Capital Area Beltway.  But it is nothing more then another way for state government to make money and seize propery, all the while destroying home values and damaging environmental and historical sites.  On top of that, the ICC is projected to go over-budget, further draining the state's precious resources and taking away vital dollars from schools.  Make the case against this terrible idea, and appeal to greenies and fiscal conservatives alike.  Hit hard on other local issues, issues that may be hated in their areas but which are pushed onwards by leaders in Annapolis.
 
5.  Get serious about minority issues.  Talk about prison reform, and the fact that Prince George's county has one of the most corrupt police forces in the United States.  Talk about schools, and school systems, and why an "accounting error" led to some $20 million being kept from Montgomery County schools.  Talk about how racist acts in Charles County are unacceptable and dispicable, and how challenges to the hispanic community will be met.
 
   These are just a few topics and suggestions, but they highlight the issues where Republicans, an endangered animal in Maryland, can enlist the support of Democrats and perhaps push towards a surprising victory a la Governor Erlich in 2002.  Onward elephants, off you must go!
 
 
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